Gold vs Nifty Since 2010: What Your Dhanteras Coin Really Earned

If you had put ₹10,000 into gold every Dhanteras since 2010, you'd now have about ₹6.7 lakh. If you had put the same ₹10,000 into the Nifty every Diwali instead, you'd have about ₹3.8 lakh. Gold wins easily, and plenty of people will stop reading there.

Don't. Run the same test at the end of 2024 and Nifty was ahead. Run it at the end of 2019 and Nifty was well ahead. The answer depends almost entirely on which Diwali you check. And if your gold was a necklace rather than a coin, you got less than either headline figure. Here's the full picture before you buy anything on Friday, 6 November 2026.

How I set up the test

• Gold: ₹10,000 of 24K gold bought at the Dhanteras rate each year from 2010 to 2025, which is 16 purchases and ₹1.6 lakh in total.
• Nifty: ₹10,000 put into the Nifty 50 at each Muhurat close, two days later on Diwali. These are the same closes I used in the Muhurat trading study.
• Today's value: gold at about ₹1,49,600 per 10 g (8 October 2026) and Nifty at 22,776 (6 October 2026).

I couldn't find a consistent Dhanteras price series for 2005 to 2009, so the test starts in 2010. I used the Nifty price index, which leaves out dividends. That slightly understates equity, and I come back to it below.

The prices, year by year

Gold: 24K domestic rate on Dhanteras, from a compiled series published by Sahi (2010–2024). For 2025 I used about ₹1.30 lakh, in line with Delhi rates reported on Dhanteras (18 October 2025). Rates differ by city and time of day, by up to about 3%. Nifty: Nifty 50 close on the Muhurat session.

The result depends on which Diwali you check

Here's what the yearly ₹10,000 habit was worth at different Diwalis, counting only the purchases made up to that point:

For fourteen years the Nifty habit was ahead at every check, often by a wide margin. Then gold had two extraordinary years. It went from about ₹79,000 to ₹1.3 lakh between Dhanteras 2024 and 2025, and it has risen again since. Over the same stretch Nifty barely moved, and then it fell about 12% in 2026. One unusual period flipped a result that had held for 14 years.

"Gold beat Nifty" and "Nifty beat gold" are both true. It depends on which Diwali you stop the clock.

Measured as an annual return on each yearly purchase (XIRR), gold has earned about 15.6% a year and the Nifty price index about 9.5%. Add back dividends of roughly 1.2–1.5% a year and Nifty is nearer 11%. That's a respectable return for equity, but at this moment it is clearly behind gold.

But you didn't buy "gold". You bought a coin or a necklace

The ₹6.7 lakh figure assumes you bought and sold at the plain 24K rate, which is roughly what a gold ETF or a sovereign gold bond gives you. Most Dhanteras gold is physical, and every step costs something. I re-ran the gold numbers with typical costs:

Making charges vary a lot: about 8% on plain chains, and 20–25% or more on intricate designs. GST is 3% on the full value, making charges included. When you sell, the jeweller tests purity and usually deducts something, and you never get the making charges back. On a heavily worked necklace the jewellery line can easily drop a further ₹50,000 or more.

Tax matters too if you actually sell. Physical gold held for more than 24 months pays 12.5% tax on the gain. Equity held for more than 12 months pays 12.5% only on gains above ₹1.25 lakh a year. If you sold everything today, the gold-at-market-rate pot would pay about ₹64,000 in tax, against about ₹11,500 for the Nifty pot. Gold still comes out ahead today, but by less.

What I'd take from this

1. Don't pick a winner from the last two years. Gold's run since 2024 is exceptional. Its long-run return is closer to 10–11% a year, and it has gone through long flat periods: Dhanteras gold in 2015 was cheaper than in 2012.
2. Separate jewellery from investment. Buy jewellery because you'll wear it. If the purpose is investment, digital gold through an ETF or gold fund avoids making charges and buy-back deductions.
3. Own both. Gold rose when Nifty struggled (2011–12, 2020, 2025–26) and lagged when Nifty boomed (2014–17, 2021). That is exactly why people hold a 10–15% slice of gold alongside equity.
4. Rebalance at Diwali. After a run like this, gold may now be far above the share you planned. Dhanteras is a good yearly reminder to bring it back in line.

The verdict

If you bought a gold coin every Dhanteras since 2010, you've done very well, and better than the Nifty habit as of today. But that lead is two years old. For most of this period equity was ahead, and jewellery gives up a large part of gold's return before you even sell it. Gold is good protection for a portfolio. Treat it as one part of what you own, and don't put everything into it because of the last two years.

Frequently asked questions

When is Dhanteras in 2026?

Dhanteras falls on Friday, 6 November 2026, two days before Diwali on Sunday, 8 November.

Is gold a better investment than Nifty?

Over 2010–2026 gold has come out ahead, but only because of its 2024–26 rally. At every Diwali check from 2015 to 2024, a yearly Nifty investment was worth more. Over long periods equity has usually grown faster, while gold has protected portfolios in bad years for equity.

How much do you lose on making charges?

Typically 8–25% of the gold value, plus 3% GST on the total. You don't get making charges back when you sell or exchange jewellery, so they are a straight cost.

How is gold taxed when I sell?

Physical gold, gold ETFs and gold funds held for longer than the qualifying period are taxed at 12.5% on long-term gains, without indexation. Check the current holding-period rules for each product before you sell.

Disclaimer: WelthWest is an analytics and education platform, not a SEBI-registered investment adviser or broker. Gold rates are compiled from published Dhanteras reports and vary by city and source. Cost assumptions are illustrative. Past performance does not indicate future returns. This article is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.