₹5,000 SIP for 10, 15 and 20 Years: What the Nifty 50 Actually Delivered (Worst Start Dates Included)

Every SIP calculator gives the same answer. Type in ₹5,000 a month for 20 years at 12%, and it tells you ₹50 lakh. It's a clean number, and it's the reason a lot of people start a SIP. But markets don't pay a steady 12%. They crash in 2008, stall for years, crash again in 2020, and are falling again in 2026.

So instead of assuming a return, I took the actual month-by-month returns of the Nifty 50 from January 2002 to October 2026 and ran a ₹5,000 monthly SIP from every possible start month: 179 ten-year periods, 119 fifteen-year periods and 59 twenty-year periods. Here is what really happened, including the unluckiest investors.

₹5,000 SIP results for 10, 15 and 20 years

For each period, the table shows what you put in, what the worst, typical (median) and best start month produced, and what a standard calculator promises at 12%. The figure in brackets is the yearly return on your SIP (XIRR).

Three things stand out:

• The typical SIP did earn close to 12%. The median return was 11.6% over 10 years, 11.7% over 15 and 12.0% over 20. The calculator's 12% isn't fiction. It's the middle of a wide range.
• The range narrows with time. Over 10 years the spread was 3.2% to 15.3% a year. Over 20 years it shrank to 9.6% to 13.7%. A longer SIP doesn't guarantee a high return, but it makes a very bad one much less likely.
• Nobody lost money over 10 years or more, in any start month since 2002. That includes people who started just before the 2008 crash.

A 7% yearly return is roughly what a bank FD paid for much of this period, before tax. Only 3% of 10-year SIPs and none of the 20-year ones did worse than that.

The worst start dates, and why they were the worst

You would expect the worst SIP to be the one that started at the top of a bubble, like January 2008. It wasn't. A SIP that started in January 2008 bought through the whole crash at low prices and did fine: a 10-year SIP started in 2008 earned a median 11.3% a year.

The real worst cases were SIPs that ended in a crash:

• Worst 10 years: April 2010 to March 2020. ₹6 lakh became just ₹7.07 lakh, a 3.2% yearly return. The period ended in the March 2020 COVID crash, when the Nifty fell 23% in one month. The four next-worst 10-year SIPs also started in 2010 or 2006.
• Worst 15 years: April 2005 to March 2020. ₹9 lakh became ₹14.4 lakh (6.0%). Same ending.
• Worst 20 years: November 2006 to October 2026. ₹12 lakh became ₹34.7 lakh (9.6%). That's the SIP ending right now.

Here's the part the bad number hides. The investor who had ₹7.07 lakh in March 2020 and simply kept the SIP going for one more year had ₹12.87 lakh by March 2021, having put in only ₹60,000 more. The loss was never permanent. It was a bad day to look at the statement.

Why the worst 20-year SIP is the one ending today

On 27 October 2026 the Nifty 50 closed at about 22,675, roughly 14% below its high of about 26,330 in early January 2026. March 2026 alone was down 11%. So anyone whose 20-year SIP ends this month is getting the weakest result of any 20-year SIP since 2002, at 9.6% a year.

That still turned ₹12 lakh into ₹34.7 lakh, almost three times the money. But compare it with the median 20-year result of ₹45.9 lakh. The difference of about ₹11 lakh has nothing to do with how well the investor chose. It is the month the money happened to be needed.

That gives the most useful lesson in this article: don't let the final date be decided by the market. If you need the money for a fixed goal, like a child's college fee, start moving it from equity to a debt fund or FD gradually over the last two to three years, so a crash in the final months can't take a big bite.

Is the 12% calculator return realistic?

Yes, as an average. No, as a promise. In the real data, about half the SIPs reached 12% a year and half fell short. If you plan with 12%, you have roughly a coin-flip chance of having less than you planned. A safer way to plan:

• Plan with 10%, which the large majority of 15- and 20-year SIPs beat (the bottom 10% of 20-year results started at 10.4%).
• Treat 12% as the likely case, not the guaranteed one.
• Remember dividends. These numbers use the Nifty 50 price index, which leaves out dividends. A low-cost Nifty 50 index fund also collects them, about 1.2% a year, minus a fund cost of about 0.2%.

Adding that estimated 1 percentage point a year changes the picture noticeably:

Should you stop your SIP in a crash?

It feels sensible to stop investing while the market falls and restart when it "settles". I tested exactly that for the two biggest crashes in the data:

• 2008 crash: a SIP from 2006 to 2015 that kept going ended at ₹9.63 lakh. The same SIP paused from January 2008 to March 2009 ended at ₹8.09 lakh. Pausing kept ₹75,000 out of the market and cost ₹1.54 lakh in final value.
• 2020 crash: a SIP from 2016 to 2025 that kept going ended at ₹11.91 lakh. Pausing from March to September 2020 left ₹11.02 lakh.

The months when prices are lowest are the months a SIP buys the most units. Stopping then removes the cheapest purchases you will ever make. The opposite idea, holding cash and investing only after a big fall, sounds smarter but usually does worse. I built a bot to test it in this video:

For the full numbers behind the video, read Buy the Dip: The Mathematical Trap.

Step-up SIP: the bigger lever

The start date is luck. The amount is in your control. A step-up SIP raises the monthly amount each year, usually in line with your salary. I ran the 20-year SIP ending today (the worst one in the data) with a 10% increase every year: ₹5,000 a month in year one, ₹5,500 in year two, and so on.

• Flat ₹5,000: ₹12.0 lakh invested became ₹34.7 lakh.
• 10% step-up: ₹34.4 lakh invested became ₹73.2 lakh.

Even in the unluckiest 20-year period, raising the amount each year more than doubled the final value. Increasing your SIP when your income rises does more for the result than any choice of start date.

How much SIP do you need for ₹1 crore in 20 years?

Using the real range of 20-year Nifty 50 results, roughly:

• About ₹10,000 a month at the median result (12% a year).
• About ₹14,000 a month to reach ₹1 crore even in the worst 20-year period so far (9.6%).
• Or start at ₹5,000 and step it up by 10% a year, which reached ₹73 lakh even in the worst case.

Keep in mind that ₹1 crore in 2046 will buy much less than ₹1 crore today. At 6% inflation, it is worth roughly ₹31 lakh in today's money.

A simple plan

1. Pick a low-cost Nifty 50 index fund (direct plan) as the core of your SIP.
2. Commit to at least 10 years, ideally 15 or more. That is where the data stops showing bad outcomes.
3. Don't pause in a crash. Those are the months that do the most for you.
4. Step it up each year when your salary rises.
5. Plan with 10%, hope for 12%.
6. Shift gradually to debt in the last 2–3 years before a fixed goal, so the end date isn't left to the market.
7. Plan the tax at the end. Equity gains held over a year are taxed at 12.5% above ₹1.25 lakh a year. Withdrawing over a few financial years uses the exemption more than once.

For a lump sum instead of a monthly SIP, see Where to Invest ₹10 Lakh for 10 Years in India, and for how the Nifty compares with gold, read Gold vs Nifty since 2010. To test a SIP or any other strategy on your own dates, try Welth Lab, WelthWest's no-code backtesting tool.

Frequently asked questions

How much will a ₹5,000 SIP become in 20 years?

In the Nifty 50 since 2002, ₹5,000 a month for 20 years (₹12 lakh invested) became between ₹34.7 lakh and ₹56.7 lakh, with a median of ₹45.9 lakh. Including dividends, as an index fund would, the median is about ₹52.8 lakh.

How much will a ₹5,000 SIP become in 10 years?

₹6 lakh invested became between ₹7.1 lakh and ₹13.4 lakh, with a median of ₹11.0 lakh. The worst case ended in the March 2020 crash.

How much will a ₹5,000 SIP become in 15 years?

₹9 lakh invested became between ₹14.4 lakh and ₹27.4 lakh, with a median of ₹23.2 lakh.

Is 12% return on SIP realistic in India?

For a Nifty 50 SIP over 15 to 20 years, 12% was close to the median result, so about half of all start dates reached it. It's a reasonable expectation but not a safe planning number. Using 10% is more cautious.

Can a SIP give negative returns?

Over short periods, yes. In this data, no Nifty 50 SIP of 10 years or more ended with less than was invested, though the worst 10-year SIP earned only 3.2% a year.

Should I stop my SIP when the market falls?

The data says no. Pausing during the 2008–09 crash cost ₹1.54 lakh of final value on a ₹5,000 SIP, and pausing in 2020 cost about ₹89,000. The SIP buys the most units when prices are lowest.

Is a Nifty 50 index fund good for SIP?

It's a simple, low-cost choice that gave a median of about 12% to 13% a year over long periods in this data, including dividends. Past returns do not guarantee future ones.

Sources and method: Monthly Nifty 50 price returns from January 2002 to September 2026 from niftyindices.com (as published by PrimeInvestor), cross-checked against Yahoo Finance month-end closes for 2007 onward (median difference under 0.01%), plus October 2026 up to 27 October from Yahoo Finance. A ₹5,000 investment is made at the start of every month and valued at the end of the final month; the yearly return is the XIRR of the monthly cash flows. Every possible start month was tested. The price index excludes dividends; the "index fund estimate" adds 1.0% a year (about 1.2% dividend yield minus about 0.2% fund cost). Taxes, exit loads and tracking error are ignored. The ₹1 crore figures are approximations.

Disclaimer: WelthWest is an analytics and education platform, not a SEBI-registered investment adviser or broker. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy any fund or security. Past performance does not indicate future returns, and the figures are illustrative. Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks; read all scheme-related documents carefully. Tax rules can change; check the latest rules or speak to a tax professional. This article is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.